How Many Republicans in House of Representatives 2018
Pew Research Heart conducted this report to empathise how Americans voted in 2022 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the two elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official land turnout records.
We surveyed ten,640 U.South. adults online in November 2022 and four,183 adults in November and December 2016. Everyone who took function is a member of Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey console recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This style nearly all U.Due south. adults accept a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. developed population past gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATP's methodology. Verification of voter turnout involved matching the panelists to two or more than commercial voter files. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters; all others are presumed non to have voted.
Here are the questions used for this report and its methodology.
Compared with Hillary Clinton'southward 2-point popular vote reward over Donald Trump in the 2022 presidential ballot, the Democratic Political party expanded its margin over the Republican Party to 9 points in votes cast for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, a proceeds of 7 percentage points. This increased support was sufficient for the Democratic Party to gain the majority in the House with a net pickup of 41 seats. Voter turnout every bit a share of the eligible population was 49%, the highest for a midterm ballot in 100 years. A new analysis of verified voters from Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel examines what 2022 voters and nonvoters did in the 2022 midterm elections and offers a detailed portrait of the demographic composition and vote choices of the 2022 electorate. It provides an update and comparison with findings from our written report of the 2022 electorate.
Compared with how Clinton fared in 2016, Autonomous candidates for Congress in 2022 made gains from several sources. Among Americans who voted in both elections, Clinton'south 2022 voters supported Democrats in 2022 at a slightly higher charge per unit than Trump's voters supported Republican candidates. Slightly more of Clinton's than Trump's voters turned out to vote in 2018. In combination, party loyalty, defection and turnout differences among 2022 voters accounted for a little less than one-half of the Democratic gains over Clinton'south 2-point margin.
Nonvoters in 2022 who turned out in 2022 voted heavily for Autonomous candidates, accounting for about half of the Democratic gains. Additionally, a small share of the gains came from people who voted for third-political party candidates in 2016; they favored Autonomous candidates over Republican candidates in 2022 by a narrow margin.
Voting patterns in 2022 reflected a great deal of continuity with 2016, though Democratic candidates in 2022 did meliorate among a few groups, notably men, young people and secular voters. Voting patterns amidst several other big groups changed less, including Blackness voters, voters ages 65 and older, Protestants, regular churchgoers and women.
Given their relatively lower turnout, midterm elections are not necessarily predictive of what will happen in the next presidential election, when many more American voters volition take part.
This analysis is based on interviews with 10,640 members of Pew Research Eye'south American Trends Console conducted November. seven-sixteen, 2018, shortly later the general election. Information technology also draws on interviews conducted among 3,770 of the panelists from Nov. 29 to Dec. 12, 2016, later on the general election that year and interviews conducted Aug. xx to Oct. 28, 2022 amidst all members of the panel at that time. Researchers attempted to match the panelists to 2 different commercial voter files that contain official records of voter registration and turnout for 2022 and 2018. For the panelists interviewed in 2016, their 2022 vote history is based on verification with 3 additional commercial voter files, equally described in an earlier study. (For more details, see "Methodology.") This procedure of verifying voter turnout helps to correct for the tendency of some people to overreport voting and is generally regarded as providing a more accurate picture of the electorate.
Where the 2022 Democratic advantage came from: 2022 nonvoters, higher turnout by Clinton voters, and vote switching
Midterm elections consistently feel lower turnout than presidential elections. Withal while the 2022 turnout of 49% did not match turnout in the 2022 presidential ballot (59%), it was far higher than usual. Midway through President Trump's start term in office, both Democrats and Republicans were energized. A large majority of people who voted in 2022 (76%) also voted in 2018. But somewhat more of Clinton's 2022 voters (78%) than Trump'due south 2022 voters (74%) turned out in 2018. Overwhelming majorities of both Trump'southward and Clinton's 2022 voters remained loyal to their respective parties in their 2022 U.S. House vote, though Clinton'due south 2022 voters who turned out in 2022 were slightly more loyal to Democratic 2022 candidates (96%) than Trump'south 2022 voters were to 2022 GOP candidates (93%). Among the share who voted for someone other than Trump or Clinton in 2016, 71% voted in 2018. These voters favored Autonomous candidates over Republican candidates by a margin of 49% to 37%.
Voters in 2022 who did not vote in 2022 were a pocket-size group (almost eleven% of all 2022 voters) only an important office of why the Democratic Party made gains. Amidst the 2022 nonvoters who voted in 2018, Democratic House candidates led Republican House candidates past a more than a two-to-i (68% to 29%) margin.
Of everyone eligible by citizenship and age to vote in 2018, 44% voted in both the 2022 and 2022 elections; 36% voted in neither; 14% were drop-off voters (voting in 2022 but not in 2018) and a small share (6%) were new voters – voting in 2022 but not in 2016.
Few defections from party amalgamation
As they did in 2016, Republicans and Democrats voted virtually unanimously for House candidates of their ain party in 2018. Among those who do not initially identify with either party (including leaners, members of tertiary parties and "pure" independents), Democratic candidates picked upward 13 percentage points of back up in 2022 over Clinton's levels. Autonomous candidates also made gains among Republicans and leaners who describe themselves equally moderate or liberal (from 8% for Clinton to 15% for Democratic Business firm candidates).
Democrats did meliorate in 2022 than 2022 among men, young voters
Among nearly groups, voting patterns in 2022 were more often than not similar to those in 2016, albeit with well-nigh reflecting somewhat greater support for Democratic candidates for the U.S. House compared with Hillary Clinton. Men, young people and secular voters were notably more supportive of Democratic candidates in 2022 than these groups had been in 2016.
Autonomous gains amidst men resulted in some narrowing of the gender gap. In the 2022 election, Donald Trump won men past 11 points (52% to 41%) and Hillary Clinton won women by 15 (54% to 39%), for a divergence of 26 points. In 2018, women supported Autonomous candidates by a similar margin (18 points, 58% to xl%) but the GOP reward amidst men vanished (fifty% voted Democratic, 48% Republican). Trump carried White men by 30 points in 2022 (62% to 32%), a Republican advantage that shrank to just 12 points in 2022 (55% to 43%).
Much equally the gender gap shrank from 2022 to 2018, so did the wedlock gap. Married voters in 2022 voted for Trump by a 55% to 39% margin but supported GOP Business firm candidates in 2022 by only a 6-point margin, 52% to 46%. Unmarried voters were strongly Autonomous in both years (58% to 34% for Clinton in 2022 and 64% to 33% for Democratic House candidates in 2018). Much of the refuse in the marriage gap came from men. Trump won married men past a thirty-point margin in 2016, but this group backed GOP House candidates by 12 points in 2018. Married women were evenly divided between the parties in both elections. Amidst single voters, women were more supportive of Autonomous candidates in 2022 than they had been of Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Young voters ages xviii-29 were solid supporters of Clinton in 2016, but every bit a group were even more than Autonomous in 2018. In 2016, voters ages 18-29 voted for Clinton over Trump by a 58% to 28% margin, with 14% casting votes for third party candidates. In 2018, this group's votes went 72% for Democratic candidates and 23% for Republican candidates. Young voters, however, were significantly underrepresented in the electorate due to low turnout (as they usually are). In 2018, they fabricated upwards 11% of all voters, significantly below their 21% share of the voting eligible population. Nonetheless, 37% of young voters in 2022 had not voted in the 2022 election, a far higher share than in whatever other age group.
By contrast, older voters continued to be the Republican Party's well-nigh loyal historic period grouping. Trump carried voters ages 65 and older by a ix-point margin in 2016; Republican candidates for the Business firm won this grouping past 6 points in 2022 (52% to 46%). Older voters were nearly 1-tertiary of all voters in 2022 (31%), well-nigh three times the share of those ages eighteen-29, despite making up about the same overall share of the voting eligible population.
Support for Republican candidates amidst Blackness voters in 2022 was minimal (92% Democratic vs. 6% Republican in 2018, similar to the 91% to 6% margin for Clinton in 2016). Republicans had more than support among Hispanic than Black voters, but there were yet lopsided majorities for Autonomous candidates (72% vs. 25% in 2022 and 66% for Clinton and 28% for Trump in 2016). In that location were too few Asian American voters in the sample to yield a reliable estimate, merely among Asian and other voters of color collectively the 2022 vote was 67% Autonomous and xxx% Republican. White voters backed GOP candidates over Democrats past 6 points in 2022 (52% to 46%), though this represents a narrowing of Trump'due south fifteen-point margin over Clinton amongst White voters.
Geography remained a strong correlate of vote choice in 2018, with urban voters breaking Democratic by about a iii-to-one margin (73% to 25%), like to their split up in 2022 (lxx% Clinton, 24% Trump). Republicans had about a two-to-one advantage over the Democrats with rural voters in both presidential voting and in 2018. Meanwhile, the Democrats fabricated gains amidst suburban voters. While Trump and Clinton had roughly divided the suburban vote in 2022 downwardly the center (47% Trump, 45% Clinton), Autonomous Business firm candidates won the suburban vote past 7 pct points ii years later (52% to 45%).
Voters of color more often than not voted Democratic regardless of where they lived, though Republican candidates received 37% of the votes of suburban Hispanics and 12% back up amongst rural Black voters. White urban voters supported Democratic candidates by a roughly two-to-ane margin (64% to 34%) while rural White adults were a virtually mirror prototype (64% Republican, 33% Autonomous). Suburban White voters, who favored Trump past 16 points in 2016, were more divided in 2022 (51% Republican, 47% Autonomous).
Already a stiff Democratic group, those unaffiliated with a religious tradition became more than so
In 2018, voters were highly politically polarized by religious amalgamation and attendance at worship services, as they have been for many years in the U.S. Solid majorities of Protestants supported Republican candidates in 2018, while Catholics were more divided and the less religious were strongly Democratic in their votes.
The Republican Political party's most supportive demographic group (other than voters who place every bit Republican or who are conservative) were White evangelical Protestants (81% voted Republican and 17% voted Democratic). This margin was very similar to 2022 (77% Trump vs. 16% Clinton). A sizable majority of White Catholics also supported Republicans (59% to 39%), with White non-evangelical Protestants close behind (55% to 42%).
Unaffiliated voters – and particularly atheists and agnostics – were even more than supportive of Democratic candidates in 2022 than they had been of Hillary Clinton, with at to the lowest degree some of the change coming from those who had supported Gary Johnson or Jill Stein in 2016. The margins among voters who depict their religious affiliation as "nothing in item" were fairly similar in 2022 and 2018. Atheists (7% of voters in 2018) supported Autonomous candidates by an overwhelming 88% to 9% margin, rivaling Black support for the Democrats. Agnostics (too 7% of voters) were not far behind, supporting Democratic candidates by a 79% to 18% margin.
The solid back up for Democratic candidates among the unaffiliated is also reflected in voting patterns by attendance at worship services. Among those who attend a few times a year or less often, 61% voted Democratic and 37% voted Republican. In 2016, this group voted 54% to 38% for Clinton. By contrast, voters who attend services monthly or more than oftentimes voted 58% to forty% Republican in 2018. 2 years earlier, they voted for Trump by a 58% to 37% margin.
Democrats made small-scale gains in 2022 among non-college White voters
Perhaps the most important political trend reflected in the 2022 outcome was the continued motion of working-class White voters toward the GOP. Hillary Clinton lost White voters who did not accept a college degree by a broad 36 percentage points (64% for Trump vs. 28% for Clinton). But in 2018, Democratic candidates managed to narrow the gap somewhat, losing this group by 61% to 36%, a 25-indicate margin.
At the same time, the Democratic Party maintained a broad margin among college-educated White adults. In 2016, Democrats won this grouping by 17 points (55% to 38%) and in 2022 by a nearly identical 18-point margin (58% to 40%).
Democratic candidates in 2022 did well among both the highest- and lowest- income voters. Voters reporting annual family incomes of $150,000 or college voted for Democratic candidates by a 59% to 39% margin. At the other extreme, those with incomes beneath $30,000 voted 62% to 34% Democratic. Fifty-fifty among White low-income voters, Democratic and Republican candidates battled to a necktie (48% each). Amongst White voters with incomes between $30,000 and $74,999, Republican candidates had a 54% to 44% majority.
The parties' coalitions, 2022 vs. 2016
People who voted for Democratic vs. Republican candidates for the House in 2022 were quite different demographically, in ways consistent with previous elections including 2016. The Republican coalition is more than likely to exist older, male, White, somewhat less educated and Protestant or Catholic.
In 2016, men made upwards only 39% of Hillary Clinton's voters. This share grew to 45% for Democratic House candidates in 2018. Merely other than a slight increase in the share of Republican voters ages 65 and older, there was petty modify in the respective historic period profiles of the two parties' voters. Nearly half of those who voted for Democratic candidates were under 50 years of age, compared with almost a third (32%) of Republican voters.
Not-Hispanic White adults made up near 9-in-ten Republican voters (88%), compared with just two-thirds (65%) of Democratic voters. Only 1% of voters who chose Republican House candidates were Black (16% of Democratic voters were Black). Hispanics were 11% of the Democratic voter coalition, compared with 5% for the Republican coalition.
Half of Democratic voters in 2022 had a four-year higher degree or more, compared with 35% of Republican voters. Voters with postgraduate degrees made up nearly a quarter (24%) of the Democratic electorate, compared with 13% amidst Republican voters. Combining this with the racial profile of the parties' supporters, 57% of GOP voters were White adults with no college degree, compared with 28% among Democratic voters.
Protestants made upward a majority of those voting Republican in 2018, just as they did in 2016. Overall, 57% of GOP House voters were Protestant, compared with just a third (32%) of Democratic voters. Catholics made upward a slightly higher share of Republican voters as well (22% vs. 16% of Democratic voters). Voters who were unaffiliated with whatsoever religious tradition (atheists, agnostics and those who draw themselves as "null in particular") make upwards 42% of Democratic voters merely just 15% of Republican voters.
The demographic profile of voters and nonvoters is very unlike
The roughly one-half of Americans who voted in 2022 differ from the voting-eligible developed population in some key respects. There were sizeable, if familiar, demographic and political differences in who did and did not plow out.
Compared with citizens who did non vote, voters were older, more likely to be college educated, better off financially, more probable to be White Protestants or Catholics and more Republican in political party affiliation and candidate preference. These differences are regular features of U.S. elections, equally a comparison with voters and nonvoters in 2022 makes articulate.
All citizen panelists – whether voters or nonvoters – were asked which U.S. House candidate they supported in the general election. Nonvoters tend to express more than uncertainty about the choice, owing in large office to the fact that many of them pay trivial attention to politics. Simply among those who did express a preference, Democratic candidates led Republican candidates by 14 percentage points (44% to 30%) a larger margin than among voters (nine points, 53% to 44%).
Demographically, the contrast betwixt voters and nonvoters is almost stark on historic period, race, didactics and income. Voters in 2022 were considerably older than nonvoters: 31% of voters just just x% of nonvoters were ages 65 and older. At the other cease of the age spectrum, just 11% of voters were under thirty years of age; 30% of nonvoters brutal into this category. These gaps are quite like to those seen in 2016.
Similarly, three-quarters of voters (75%) were non-Hispanic White adults, while 60% of nonvoters were White. Hispanics, in particular, were underrepresented as voters. Just 8% of 2022 voters were Hispanic. Among the voting-eligible nonvoters, 17% were Hispanic. Blackness adults were 9% of voters simply 14% of nonvoters.
Voters tend to be more than highly educated and more flush than nonvoters. Ane-quarter of voters had only a high school education, but 47% of nonvoters did so. More than than four-in-10 voters (43%) were college graduates, compared with just xix% of nonvoters. The differences past income were similarly substantial. Just 17% of voters had annual family incomes of less than $thirty,000. Amidst nonvoters, 40% did so.
White Protestants and White Catholics make up near one-half of all voters (46%) just just 32% of nonvoters. People who describe their religious affiliation every bit "nothing in detail" are underrepresented amidst voters, constituting 28% of all nonvoters simply but sixteen% of voters.
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Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/09/08/democrats-made-gains-from-multiple-sources-in-2018-midterm-victories/
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