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Ch5 Section 3 Guided Reading and Review Economics

Affiliate 3 at a Glance

  • The sustainable investment fund sector tin can be an important commuter of the global transition to a green economy but, at the current juncture, is too limited in size and telescopic to have a major impact and faces challenges related to greenwashing.

  • Total assets nether management of sustainable investment funds are small but growing rapidly, more doubling over the past four years to reach $3.6 trillion in 2020. Nonetheless, climate-oriented funds accounted for only $130 billion of that full.

  • Flows into sustainable funds appear to support climate stewardship and encourage the issuance of securities past firms with a more than favorable sustainability rating.

  • Sustainable investors could also bring financial stability benefits equally they are less sensitive to brusk-term returns.

  • Climate-related news has not had a meaningful impact on investment fund returns and flows in the past, only large and sudden transition risk shocks could exist disruptive in the future.

  • A survey of asset managers suggests that lack of adequate data is a key obstacle to implementing sustainable investment strategies.

  • For the sustainable fund sector to become an constructive driver of the transition, policymakers should: o Urgently strengthen the global climate information compages (information, disclosures, sustainable finance classifications including climate taxonomies) both for firms and investment funds. o Ensure proper regulatory oversight to forestall greenwashing.

  • After those elements are in identify, tools to channel savings toward transition-enhancing funds (such equally financial incentives for investments in climate-oriented funds) could be considered to complement other critical climate-change-mitigation measures, such as a carbon taxation.

  • To mitigate potential financial stability risks stemming from the transition, policymakers should implement a climate policy consequent with an orderly transition and conduct scenario analysis and stress testing of the investment fund sector.

Introduction

The forthcoming 26th Un Climatic change Conference of the Parties (COP26) presents a pivotal opportunity to speed upwardly the transition to a low-greenhouse-gas economy and avoid catastrophic climate change. Global warming resulting from greenhouse gas emissions (especially carbon dioxide from fossil fuels) is an existential threat. To reach the objective of limiting global warming to well beneath two°C by 2100, as set out during the Paris briefing half dozen years ago, a global transition to a low-greenhouse-gas ("green") economy is required over the adjacent three decades (IPCC 2021). In recent years, the costs of adopting technologies to facilitate the transition take been declining, making such technologies increasingly competitive.one Moreover, a growing number of governments have committed to cyberspace-zero domestic greenhouse gas emissions by the centre of this century to achieve the transition. All the same emissions go along to rise, and under current policies global warming is expected to miss the Paris Agreement goal past a broad margin (Climate Action Tracker 2021). In this regard, COP26 could be a watershed moment for much needed global climate policy actions to reverse the trend of growing emissions and mitigate climatic change.ii

A successful transition demands a deep economical transformation, requiring the mobilization of private finance on a big scale. According to estimates, achieving internet-zero carbon emissions by 2050 volition crave additional global investments in the range of 0.6 to i percent of annual global Gdp over the adjacent ii decades, amounting to a cumulative $12 trillion to $20 trillion (IEA 2021; IMF 2021a).3 These investments would demand to be oriented away from the fossil fuel sector and toward renewables as well as toward low-emissions solutions within sectors. A green investment push button is thus essential and urgent to facilitate the transition (encounter the October 2020 World Economical Outlook).

The global fiscal sector tin can play a crucial office in catalyzing private investment and accelerating the transition. In recent years, sustainability considerations encompassing environmental, social, and governance concerns accept been increasingly embedded in investment strategies and philosophies, boosting so-called sustainable finance (see the Oct 2019 Global Financial Stability Study). Investors with a sustainability focus may exist driven by a pure fiscal objective (seeking to "practice well" by factoring in the increasing relevance of sustainability for financial returns) or by a sustainability objective (seeking to "benefit" to actively promote a more sustainable economy and, in the instance of climate change, a faster transition) along with the financial objective.

Within the sustainable finance landscape, the investment fund sector is peculiarly relevant because of its expanding size and focus on sustainability-related issues. The sector has grown significantly since the global financial crisis and now represents about one-third of the assets held by the nonbank fiscal institution sector.four It is at the middle of the prototype shift toward the integration of sustainability considerations—including climate change mitigation—into investment decisions. This is evidenced past the growing number of networks of investors and asset managers that have demonstrated their commitment to comprise sustainability issues and support decarbonization efforts.5 Contempo survey testify too suggests that investment funds—especially those with a sustainable investment mandate—are paying increasing attention to climate alter and the transition (Krueger, Sautner, and Starks 2020), and studies indicate that fiscal markets have started to cost in the transition.6 Pricing in the transition, at least directionally, is important to foster information technology and to avoid allocating backlog upper-case letter to firms and projects that do non have a positive impact on climate change mitigation.

Although the investment fund sector can foster the transition, financial stability concerns related to that transition are also pertinent. The exact pathway of the transition to a greenish economy is even so highly uncertain, including how it could play out across countries. It could occur at unlike speeds and through multiple paths, depending on countries' transition policies, the development and adoption of new make clean technologies, and shifts in the preferences of consumers and producers toward low-greenhouse-gas products and services (see the October 2019 Financial Monitor and the October 2020 Globe Economic Outlook). Different possible transition paths could stand for opportunities (such equally new investment projects offer high rates of return) simply could likewise be sources of transition risks stemming from the decline in future cash flows of firms adversely affected by the adoption of cleaner technologies (such as those in the fossil fuel sector). Recent analyses accept documented that investment funds' exposures to the sectors most sensitive to the transition—including fossil fuels, utilities, energy-intensive manufacturing, and transportation—are indeed significant (Battiston and others 2017; ECB 2021; ESMA 2021). A large and unforeseen transition shock (for example, a sudden realization of the demand for rapid significant change across the global economy) could lead to a big repricing of the afflicted avails, generating financial stability risks.

Against this properties, this chapter analyzes the interplay between the global investment fund sector and the transition to a low-greenhouse-gas economy from both the perspective of fostering the transition and the perspective of fiscal stability risks. In particular, it focuses on two key questions: How practise sustainable investment funds—defined as funds with both a financial and a sustainability objective— facilitate the transition? And what has been the bear upon of transition shocks on the investment fund sector to date?7 To accost these questions, the chapter first develops a elementary conceptual framework analyzing the interlinkages between the investment fund sector and the transition. It then draws on that framework to deport empirical analysis using a sample of more than than 54,000 open-terminate funds—more often than not equity, fixed-income, and resource allotment funds.eight

Investment Funds and the Transition: A Conceptual Framework

The shift toward sustainable investment funds can support the transformation of the economy through 2 primary channels (Effigy 3.one). Get-go, investors make portfolio decisions based on their preferences for sustainability and their cess of risks and opportunities, and these decisions create inflows into sustainable funds that increase the supply of capital letter available to firms supporting the transition. This in plough reduces their cost of capital and encourages transition-aligned investments geared toward emissions reductions.9,x Second, sustainable funds can influence firms' strategies through stewardship, supporting the move toward more transition-aligned corporate policies. This entails exerting influence through engagement and proxy voting to improve sustainability practices, outcomes, and disclosures.11 A positive feedback loop could thus emerge through the investment fund sector, with investors' sustainability concerns leading to more investments in climate-change-mitigating projects reflecting risk direction and rate-of-return considerations, thus increasing the pace of the transition.

Figure 3.1.

Effigy 3.1.

The Sustainable Investment Fund Sector Can Speed Upwardly the Transition to a Green Economy

Source: IMF staff compilation.

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The investment fund sector could also amplify the touch on of sudden transition shocks on financial stability. The transition to a green economy could be a source of financial stability risk for firms adversely affected by the accompanying economic transformation likewise as for financial institutions that concord claims on these firms. Sudden and larger-than-expected transition shocks—such every bit a delayed and abrupt tightening in carbon policy—could be amplified by vulnerabilities in the investment fund sector and have a meaningful impact on financial stability.12 In such a scenario, investors would reassess risks, likely triggering outflows from funds with high exposure to transition gamble, potentially leading to runs on these funds and fre sales and causing a further fall in nugget values (Figure 3.2).

Figure 3.2.

Effigy 3.2.

The Transition Could Be a Source of Financial Stability Chance

Source: Imf staff compilation.

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Structural vulnerabilities in the investment fund sector (such as liquidity mismatches between funds' asset holdings and redemption features, credit exposure, and utilise of financial leverage) could dilate the touch. If large and sharp, the drops in asset prices could then spill over to other parts of the fiscal sector and to the real economy through tighter fiscal conditions.

This chapter employs several empirical approaches to evaluate transition-related opportunities and risks. In particular, the approaches aim to:

  • Assess the extent to which the investment fund sector is supporting the transition by examining (ane) the evolution of the sustainable fund segment and the exposure of these funds to the transition, (2) the importance of sustainability labels in attracting fund flows, and (iii) the role of sustainable funds in climate stewardship and in encouraging the issuance of securities by more environmentally friendly firms.

  • Evaluate risks to the investment fund sector from the transition by examining whether (i) climate-related news in the past had any effect on fund flows, functioning, and portfolio limerick; (2) the size of liquidity buffers is related to funds' exposure to the transition; and (3) sustainable investors ameliorate fiscal stability risks due to their perchance lower sensitivity to brusk-term returns.

Sustainable Investment Funds Have a Small Market Share simply Are Growing Fast

A sustainable investment fund differs from a conventional fund because information technology has a sustainability objective alongside the traditional risk-return objective. In other words, sustainability considerations are a meaning office of the fund's investment focus while seeking financial returns (ICI 2020). To achieve sustainability objectives, funds tend to rely on multiple investing strategies, such as negative screening (that is, not investing in certain firms or sectors), positive screening (that is, selecting firms that satisfy specific sustainability criteria), or touch investing (that is, aiming to make a measurable sustainability bear upon alongside a fiscal return). Some sustainable funds take a specific theme, such equally the environment or climate change, while others may have a broader focus on environmental, social, and governance issues.

Sustainable investment funds represent only a pocket-size fraction of the investment fund universe. A fund's title and clarification of objectives indicate whether its focus is related to sustainability, the environment, or climate change.13 In a sample of more than 36,500 funds active every bit of the end of 2022 analyzed for this chapter, virtually four,000 had a sustainability label, of which nearly ane,000 had an environment theme and a little more than 200 had a climate-specific theme (Effigy three.3, panel 1).14 The size of the sustainable fund segment, and of climate funds in particular, is also small compared with the overall size of the investment fund sector. While total avails under management of the funds in the sample amounted to about $49 trillion as of the end of 2020, sustainable funds, including those with a climate-specific label, totaled about $iii.6 trillion. Funds with a specific climate focus accounted for only $130 billion of that total (Figure 3.three, panel 2).

Figure 3.3.

Figure 3.three.

Sustainable Investment Funds Accept a Small Market Share only Have Grown Fast Recently

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Lipper; Morningstar; United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment; and International monetary fund staff calculations. Notation: Fund labels are constructed from fund names and data in prospectuses (see Online Annex iii.one). Panels 2 and 3 show mutually exclusive fund labels. In panel iv, asset owners are organizations that correspond the holders of long-term retirement savings, insurance, and other avails, such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, and other financial institutions that manage deposits. Data for panel 4 are as of March 2021. AUM = assets nether management.

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However, sustainable investment funds (and climate funds in particular) have grown faster than their conventional peers in the recent past. Net flows into sustainable funds (as a percentage of assets nether direction) moved broadly at the same stride as those into conventional funds during 2010–nineteen just increased notably in 2022 (to about 5 per centum of lagged assets nether management in the quaternary quarter of 2020) (Effigy 3.3, panel iii). Over the same period, net flows into climate-labeled funds rose significantly, remaining above internet flows into conventional funds since 2022 and surging past a staggering 48 percentage of avails under management over the iv quarters of 2020. One possible reason for the stark increase in flows in 2022 could exist the COVID-19 crisis, which raised investor awareness most catastrophic events, including those related to climate change.

Conventional investment funds are also increasingly factoring environmental, social, and governance considerations into their traditional investment processes. In add-on, such funds have started to employ negative screens based on these considerations and are using stewardship to influence firms' behavior with respect to them (and related disclosures). Appropriately, the number of asset managers and nugget owners that are signatories to the Principles for Responsible Investment—thereby committing to contain environmental, social, and governance considerations into investment analysis and decision-making processes—more than doubled from about i,400 in 2022 to more than than three,000 in 2022 (Figure 3.3, console four).

The Exposure of Investment Funds to the Transition Has Remained Broadly Stable

In addition to the specific characterization, a common way to obtain sustainability information on an investment fund is through scores related to ecology, social, and governance considerations. Information providers collect information about sustainability issues from firms' disclosures, synthesize it through private scores for each of the iii environmental, social, and governance pillars—every bit well as for their underlying components—and and then construct an overall score. Fund-level sustainability scores (also called "ESG [environmental, social, and governance] scores") tin can and then be derived past matching the firm-level scores with information on portfolio holdings of securities. Similar fund-level scores can be computed for each of the three pillars and their components. Notwithstanding, currently available environmental, social, and governance data endure from several deficiencies in terms of coverage and comparability—scores tin can differ significantly across data providers, though this is less of an upshot for the environmental pillar scores (IOSCO 2021a; Gibson Brandon, Krueger, and Schmidt, forthcoming).xv Portfolio managers often cite data quality issues, multiple disclosure standards, and the lack of a globally agreed-upon taxonomy as obstacles to properly measuring risks, opportunities, and bear upon related to sustainability (Box 3.ane).xvi In fact, only well-nigh 55 pct of the disinterestedness funds in the sample have sufficient ESG data to be included in the capacity quantitative assay.

This affiliate constructs two key scores to summarize a funds exposure to the transition: transition opportunity and carbon intensity. The transition-opportunity score is a composite measure based on a range of metrics that underlie the environmental pillar, such as a visitor's carbon-reduction and overall ecology management policies and systems, the development of products or technologies related to renewable energy, broader environmental research and development, and a public commitment to divest from fossil fuels.17 All else equal, a higher score implies that the fund'south relative financial operation volition likely benefit from a faster transition. By dissimilarity, the carbon-intensity score measures a house'southward so-called Scope ane and Telescopic ii greenhouse gas emissions relative to acquirement, with a higher score implying that the fund is more likely to exist hurt by a quicker transition to a low-carbon economy, all else equal.

In the global investment fund sector, transition opportunities have remained stable while carbon intensities have gradually declined. This is particularly true for funds domiciled in advanced economies ( Figure 3.4). For funds domiciled in emerging markets, the scores take been more than volatile over time, simply nonetheless exhibit a converging trend toward their advanced economy counterparts, at least with respect to carbon intensity.eighteen

Figure 3.4.

Figure three.4.

The Transition-Related Scores of Funds Have Been Broadly Stable

Sources: FactSet; Morningstar; Refinitiv; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Run into Online Addendum 3.1 for details on the score structure methodology.

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On boilerplate, investment funds with climate labels agree securities with college transition-opportunity scores than their conventional counterparts. At the same time, however, the carbon intensity of their portfolios is as well higher than that of conventional funds (Figure iii.5, panels 1 and two). This may exist because climate-focused funds tend to invest in firms that are more probable to significantly reduce their emissions levels during the transition or facilitate the reduction of emissions in other parts of the economy, rather than in those with already low levels of emissions.xix Indeed, consistent with this hypothesis, climate funds take a substantially larger exposure to firms in transition-sensitive sectors—utilities, manufacturing, transportation, waste management, construction, and fossil fuels—than conventional funds, or those with a sustainability or environmental label (Figure iii.5, panel 3).20

Figure 3.5.

Figure three.5.

Climate Investment Funds Take a Strong Tilt toward Transition Opportunities

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; FactSet; Lipper; Morningstar; Refinitiv; and Imf staff calculations. Annotation: Console 3 shows the asset-weighted average industry composition using the North American Industry Classification Organization at the two-digit level. The transition-sensitive industries are defined similarly to the "climate-policy-relevant sectors" in Battiston and others (2017). Industries that are non transition-sensitive, autonomously from finance, are included in the "Other" category. See Online Annex three.1 for details on the score construction methodology. All three panels are based on mutually exclusive fund labels.

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The Role of Investment Fund Labels in Driving Fund Flows

Fund labels are an of import commuter of fund flows. Despite the less-than-perfect matching between fund labels and transition-related metrics, labels all the same represent a user-friendly and salient way to summarize a fund's investment strategy and its arroyo to appointment and stewardship. In fact, after controlling for a range of fund characteristics (including funds' portfolio transition-opportunity score, carbon intensity, ESG score, by returns, and asset class), labels are shown to be an important driver of fund flows (Figure three.6, panel ane). Moreover, the importance of sustainability labels appears to have increased in recent years (Figure 3.6, console 2).

Figure 3.6.

Figure three.6.

Climate and Sustainability Labels Matter for Flows

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; FactSet; Lipper; Morningstar; Refinitiv; and Imf staff calculations. Annotation: Panel one shows the bear upon of different fund labels and one standard divergence increases in portfolio scores. Panel 2 shows the bear on of funds' sustainability label, one standard departure increases in fund transition-opportunity scores, and a 1 standard divergence increase in funds' carbon intensity on quarterly flows, estimated by year. In both panels, estimates are based on regression models that control for the natural logarithm of fund size, fund age, expense ratios, by flows, past returns, region by year fixed effects, and Morningstar broad category past year fixed effects. Solid bars and circles bespeak significance at the ten percent level or less. ESG = environmental, social, and governance.

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Investment fund labels—and by implication sustainable finance classifications (including climate taxonomies) to align investments with climate goals— tin be a key tool for channeling flows to sustainable and climate-focused funds. Sustainable finance classifications can help guide the behavior of firms and facilitate investors' cess of firms' transition pathway—and thus contribute to the scaling up of sustainable finance markets. Looking ahead, they can play an important part in defining what is sustainable and thus in determining the flow of majuscule toward sustainable projects.

Proper regulatory oversight needs to be in place to prevent "greenwashing"—that is, deceptive marketing used to persuade the public that an organizations products, aims, and policies are environmentally friendly—and to ensure that labels adequately represent funds' investment objectives. One endeavor in this direction is the European Unions Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, which went into effect in March 2022 and requires ecology, social, and governance disclosures of certain financial market participants.21

Sustainable and Climate Investment Funds Can Facilitate the Transition

Climate-related shareholder resolutions put to a vote at firms' annual general meetings—for case, on emission-reduction targets or climate-related disclosures—tin be an important commuter of corporate behavior.22 Looking at the proxy voting behavior of funds in the sample, it is noteworthy that the support for climate-related shareholder resolutions has trended up over time, indicating that investors are increasingly taking climate-related issues seriously. This support has been significantly greater for sustainable and climate funds than for conventional funds (Figure 3.7, panel 1). Importantly, labels are useful for investors to identify funds' climate stewardship activity: funds with a "sustainable" label, specially those with an "environmental" label, are more than probable to support a climate resolution (Figure 3.7, panel 2). Meanwhile, portfolio-level transition scores do not announced to be a good indicator of funds' voting beliefs on these resolutions.23 This finding suggests that sustainable investment funds could help firms prefer a more climate-friendly business organization model and that a sole focus on funds' portfolios may miss an of import element of sustainable finance—climate stewardship.

Figure 3.7.

Effigy iii.7.

Sustainable Investment Funds Appear to Be Leaders in Climate Stewardship

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; FactSet; Lipper; Morningstar; Refinitiv; and Imf staff calculations. Note: Panel ii shows the impacts of different fund labels and one standard deviation increases in fund portfolio scores on the probability that a fund will vote in support of a climate-related resolution. Estimates are based on regression models that command for the natural logarithm of fund size, fund age, expense ratios, whether a fund is managed passively, region past year fixed effects, and fund category past year stock-still effects. In that location are not plenty funds with a climate label in the sample to clarify their proxy voting behavior separately from the broader category of surroundings-labeled funds. The assay is based on shareholder resolutions in US publicly traded companies. Solid bars indicate significance at the 10 percent level or less. ESG = environmental, social, and governance.

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Flows into sustainable investment funds increment the availability of individual majuscule to firms with a more favorable sustainability rating ("green" firms).24 Firms in transition-sensitive sectors with high ESG or environmental pillar scores are more probable (relative to other firms) to issue bonds and in larger amounts when inflows into sustainable funds increase during a quarter (Effigy 3.eight, panel 1). Similar results are true for disinterestedness issuance, where the amount of equity issued by firms with loftier ESG or ecology colonnade scores increases, fifty-fifty though they upshot disinterestedness somewhat less often ( Effigy 3.viii, panel two).25 Interestingly, similar effects are not axiomatic in variables more than closely aligned with the transition, such as the transition-opportunity score or carbon intensity. Taken together, this suggests that while sustainable funds have been boosting issuance of firms aligned with the funds' sustainability objective, they may lack the size or focus to foster issuance past firms supporting the transition.

Figure 3.8.

Figure 3.8.

Flows into Sustainable Funds Have Additional Bond and Equity Issuance of Green Firms

Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Dealogic; FactSet; Lipper; Morningstar; Refinitiv; and IMF staff calculations. Note: The effigy shows the impact of a one standard deviation increment in a firm-specific mensurate of cyberspace inflows into sustainable investment funds on the probability of issuance and the issuance volume of dark-green firms relative to that of less green firms. "Light-green" firms are defined as those in the 75th percentile of the ESG score, East score, transition-opportunity score, and negative carbon intensity. "Less green" firms are defined equally those in the 25th percentile of these scores. Equity issuance may require a longer time to react to financing supply shocks and to the fact that only seasoned equity offerings are considered in this analysis (initial public offerings are not considered). Solid bars and circles bespeak statistical significance at the x per centum level. See Online Addendum 3.four for the methodology. Eastward score = environmental score; ESG = environmental, social, and governance.

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The Transition Has Non Yet Been a Source of Financial Instability

By climate-related news has non had a systematic bear on on investment fund returns and flows.26 Events containing information about changes in climate take a chance are likely to lead to coverage in news outlets (Engle and others 2020). The most relevant climate-related news events over the past decade show a relatively small impact on the quarterly return of a fund with a loftier transition-opportunity score relative to that of a fund with a low score (Effigy 3.9, panel 1, green whisker bar). A similar effect holds with respect to the return of a fund with loftier carbon intensity compared with one with low carbon intensity (Figure three.9, console 1, blue whisker bar). The impact of climate-related news has also been express to date in terms of flows (Figure iii.9, panel 2, blue and green whisker bars). A major transition-enhancing event that can be unambiguously associated with widespread climate-related news is the Paris Understanding in the fourth quarter of 2015. As Figure 3.9 shows, the management of its effects are in line with priors (loftier-transition-opportunity -score funds and low-carbon-intensity funds benefit), but the size of the outcome is small, which suggests that the effect did not significantly alter investors' perception of the speed of the transition.

Figure 3.9.

Figure iii.9.

Fund Returns and Flows Take Barely Reacted to Climate-Related News over the Past 10 Years

Sources: FactSet; Morningstar; Refinitiv; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Results are based on panel regressions of flows and returns on ix climate-related upshot dummies and their interaction with carbon intensity and the transition-opportunity score. Command variables are past returns and flows, the logarithm of fund size, fund expense ratios, and fund age, besides as region-year and fund-type-year fixed effects. Confined depict the differential impact of a shock on funds at the 25th and 75th percentiles of the carbon-intensity and transition-opportunity score distributions. Within the whisker bars in panel 1, three of the carbon-intensity coefficients and four of the transition-opportunity coefficients are insignificant. In panel two, half dozen of the carbon-intensity coefficients and five of the transition-opportunity coefficients are insignificant. For the Paris Agreement consequence, solid confined point significance at the 10 pct level or less. Encounter Online Addendum 3.5 for methodological details.

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The limited impact of climate-related news on fund flows and functioning may explain why such news has not triggered any major portfolio aligning by investment funds. In full general, funds should react to climate-related news past adjusting their transition-related exposures in a direction that makes them less exposed to big shocks of the aforementioned nature in the future.27 All the same neither the carbon-intensity nor the transition-opportunity scores of funds appear to have responded meaningfully to climate-related news. For case, both the carbon-intensity and transition-opportunity scores declined slightly following the Paris Understanding in the fourth quarter of 2015, when intuitively this event should take had reverse effects on those scores (Figure three.x, panels 1 and 2). Transition-related scores also appear to have some bearing on investment funds' liquidity buffers. For the investment fund sector, a key factor in the ability to absorb or amplify a large transition shock is the size of the buffer provided by liquid assets. An assay of the relationship between funds' cash holdings and transition-related scores reveals that fund portfolios with a college transition-opportunity score are associated with lower greenbacks buffers (Figure 3.11, panel i, green bar), particularly if initial buffers exceed the sector median. At the same time, nonetheless, funds with a higher level of carbon intensity also appear to hold less cash than those with lower carbon intensity (Figure 3.eleven, panel 1, bluish bar).28 This consequence holds mainly for funds with already-high cash buffers (that is, above the median), suggesting that funds may appoint in such behavior but across a certain threshold (Effigy 3.eleven, panel 2). While information technology is not entirely obvious why this is the case, it could exist that highly carbon-intensive funds are more tilted toward maximizing financial returns and reach for yield by holding relatively lower liquidity buffers. A fuller assessment of the ability of investment funds to withstand transition-related liquidity strains would crave a comprehensive scenario analysis. Several studies propose that security-level valuation effects equally a effect of transition shocks could be potentially large (ECB 2021; ESMA 2021) and highly sector- and house-specific (Aberdeen Standard Investments 2021), suggesting significant heterogeneity in performance across funds and scenarios. This underscores the importance of conducting scenario analysis and stress testing of the investment fund sector, though such an practise is beyond the scope of this chapter.

Figure 3.10.

Effigy 3.10.

The Impact of Climate-Related News on Funds' Transition-Related Scores Has Been Limited

Sources: FactSet; Morningstar; Refinitiv; and International monetary fund staff calculations. Note: Results are based on panel regressions of carbon-intensity and transition-opportunity scores on nine climate shock dummies. Control variables are past returns and flows, the logarithm of fund size, fund expense ratios, and fund historic period, as well as region-year and fund-blazon-year fixed effects. Within the whisker bar in panel 1, six coefficients are insignificant. Within the whisker bar in panel 2, one coefficient is insignificant. For the Paris Agreement issue, solid bars betoken significance at the ten percent level or less. See Online Annex three.5 for methodological details.

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Figure 3.11.

Figure 3.11.

Sensitivity of Cash Buffers to Transition-Related Scores

Sources: Bloomberg Finance Fifty.P.; FactSet; Morningstar; Refinitiv; and Imf staff calculations. Note: Results are based on ordinary least squares and unconditional quantile regression models regressing cash and cash equivalent buffers on a dummy denoting whether a fund is labeled every bit sustainable, on transition-opportunity and carbon-intensity scores besides as their interactions with the sustainability label, and on lagged flows, the logarithm of fund size, fund management fees, a dummy cogent substitution-traded funds, the Chicago Lath Options Substitution Volatility Index, a term spread, a credit take a chance spread, a proxy for US interest levels, and a handbasket of major exchange rates versus the United states dollar. The models include region-year and fund-type-year fixed effects. Solid bars indicate significance at the 10 percent level or less. In console 2, labels on the x-axis indicate deciles and their rank. See Online Annex 3.5 for methodological details.

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Regardless of the transition scenario that actually plays out, in that location seem to be fiscal stability benefits associated with the growth of the sustainable fund sector. Sustainable funds announced to concenter investors who are less performance-sensitive and not likewise curt-term-oriented—they thus may be less prone to large redemptions. Following lower returns, flows refuse, on average, less for sustainable funds than for conventional funds (Figure 3.12, panel 1, far-left bar).29 Moreover, the lower sensitivity of sustainable investors tends to be more pronounced when funds are experiencing outflows or smaller inflows (Effigy 3.12, panel i, other confined). Flows to sustainable funds also announced to be more than persistent than flows to conventional funds, peculiarly for funds experiencing inflows above the median (Effigy iii.12, panel ii). This finding is consistent with the currently observed growth momentum in the sustainable fund sector and indicates that this sector has lower redemption risks and a more stable investor base. On the whole, these results advise that sustainable funds could be important from a fiscal stability perspective and act as a source of stable financing for greenish investments.

Figure 3.12.

Figure 3.12.

Menstruation-Operation Relationship

Sources: Morningstar; Refinitiv; and Imf staff calculations. Note: Results are based on mean and unconditional quantile panel regressions of fund flows on a sustainability label dummy, lagged returns and flows, the interaction of these two variables with the sustainability dummy, the logarithm of fund size, fund expense ratio, fund age, and region-year and fund-blazon-year fixed furnishings. Encounter Online Annex 3.6 for additional robustness tests. Solid bars signal significance at the 10 percentage level or lower.

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Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

The sustainable investment fund sector can be an of import commuter of the transition to a green economy, supporting pro-transition corporate behavior through stewardship and potentially boosting investment expenditures of firms that could foster the transition.xxx The sector remains small, notwithstanding, and fund managers confront a number of challenges—including data gaps, hazard of corporate greenwashing, multiple disclosure standards, and a lack of globally accustomed taxonomies—in implementing investment strategies that support the transition.

To facilitate the assessment of transition-related risks and opportunities in the corporate sector by portfolio managers, investors, and financial authorities, every bit well as to preclude greenwashing and foster climate finance markets, policymakers should urgently seek convergence on a global climate information architecture (Ferreira and others, forthcoming). Such an architecture should include:

  • A harmonized and consistent set of climate-related disclosure standards. Progress is in sight in this area (IFRS 2021).

  • High-quality, reliable, and comparable data on climate-related metrics, including forrard-looking metrics underpinned past mechanisms such as verification and audits to improve the quality of data. Initiatives are ongoing to fill up these information gaps (FSB 2021; NGFS 2021a).

  • Globally agreed-upon principles for sustainable finance classifications (including climate taxonomies) to align investment flows with climate goals. Sustainable finance classifications demand to be well defined and dynamic to enable constructive climate alter mitigation through finance, and must besides be suitable for adoption across all country groups (advanced, emerging market place, and developing economies). A decisive global effort is needed to move frontward on this front.

With regard to investment funds, efforts must keep to strengthen disclosures on how they promote sustainability and the transition, including through stewardship and uppercase allotment. This chapters findings clearly point to the importance of fund labels and sustainable finance classifications (including taxonomies) to attract inflows. However, proper regulatory oversight and verification mechanisms are essential to avert greenwashing.31

Once the climate information architecture is in place and regulatory oversight is well established, policymakers could also consider tools to channel savings toward transition-enhancing funds to complement other critical climate-change-mitigation policies, such as a carbon tax. These tools could take the class of enhanced eligibility of climate-themed funds for favorable tax handling in savings products (such as retirement plans or life insurance products).32,33

Boosted research is needed to better understand the optimal design of such financial incentives.

To assistance heighten sensation near climate-focused funds and attract investors with specific ecology and climate objectives, asset managers could emphasize the distinction between the broad concept of sustainability (which encompasses environmental, social, and governance issues) and purely climate considerations. They could also increase offerings of funds with well-defined and specific climate-change-mitigation objectives. While several big asset managers have already taken the initiative, others could likewise publish a clarification of their stewardship in climatic change mitigation specifically.

Although past transition shocks have not been a source of fiscal instability for the investment fund sector, sudden and large shocks in the futurity could be disruptive, specially if structural vulnerabilities in the sector (such every bit liquidity mismatches) are not addressed.34 To mitigate potential fiscal stability risks stemming from the transition, policy efforts should exist geared toward implementing an orderly transition, using scenario analysis and stress testing to assess the vulnerability of the investment fund sector (NGFS 2021b). In improver, to make the sector more than resilient to sudden asset toll and redemption shocks, reforms to improve the availability of liquidity and redemption direction tools are warranted (FSB 2020c; IMF 2021b).

Management of Risks and Opportunities Related to Climate change Mitigation: Survey of Nugget Managers

This box discusses results from a short survey of investment fund managers and other asset direction company representatives on the integration of climatic change considerations into portfolio direction practices also as on their perception of climate-related risks and opportunities. The survey includes responses of 26 portfolio managers and representatives from 11 nugget management firms and one asset owner, with more $16 trillion in combined avails under management, based in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Come across Online Annex 3.vii for details on the survey.

Survey participants indicated that sustainability considerations—including climatic change considerations—were fully or well-nigh fully integrated into adventure direction practices in their companies. Within sustainable investing, which typically represents about ten percent of avails nether management, a range of approaches is used. The most common approach relies on exclusionary criteria (for example, excluding certain types of fossil fuel companies); to the lowest degree frequently mentioned approaches were those that rely on positive screening (Figure three.1.1, console 1). Some portfolio managers expressed skepticism that a positive impact on climate modify mitigation could be achieved past investing solely in firms that are already performing well from an emissions perspective. Although many of the asset managers surveyed likewise offered bear upon funds, the relative size of these funds compared with the overall avails under management in sustainable funds was typically small. This is because asset managers institute it difficult to mensurate bear upon precisely.

Figure 3.1.1.

Figure 3.1.1.

Survey Responses

Source: Imf staff calculations. Note: See Online Annex 3.7 for details on the survey. ESG = environmental, social, and governance.

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To implement their sustainable investment strategies, all survey respondents said they relied on measures of the portfolio carbon footprint and frequently likewise on measures of expected emissions reduction, often calculated relative to a benchmark (Effigy iii.1.i, panel 2). About three-quarters of respondents noted that they use proprietary valuation models. Sector or manufacture classifications were often considered too crude a tool, with less than one-half of respondents incorporating them into their investment process. Third-political party environmental, social, and governance databases were more widely used every bit an input (82 percentage of respondents). Respondents were oft skeptical about the reliability and comparability of amass scores and preferred using raw metrics to generate their own scores.

Regarding implementation challenges, the overwhelming majority of respondents thought that lack of information, including the lack of forwards-looking data, was a pressing effect to be addressed and that it represented a greater obstacle than the lack of commonly accustomed disclosure standards and taxonomies (Effigy iii.i.ane, panel three). The lack of data was thought to be especially astute in individual markets.

Finally, portfolio managers expressed very heterogeneous beliefs nigh climate-related risks in the curt to medium term (Effigy 3.ane.ane, panel four). Across a listing of five run a risk factors, policy risk—such as an increment in the price of carbon or a tightening of emissions regulations—was ranked highest by a majority of respondents, followed by physical risk. In terms of opportunities from the transition, respondents considered technological alter or changes to consumer preferences to be the nigh important drivers (66 per centum of respondents).

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Source: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/abstract/books/082/465808-9781513595603-en/ch003.xml

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